When insiders buy, u buy!

Whenever a buyback is announced, it is always a good idea to check out the company, its fundamentals and its prospects. Let's take a look at one company that has recently announced a buyback: Friedman Billings Ramsey Group (FBR).

Friedman Billings Ramsey's board has raised its buyback authorization for Class A shares to 100 million, from the earlier approval of 50 million. FBR has already bought back 23.6 million shares under the earlier authorization.
The company has suspended dividend payments for the current quarter. The last quarterly payment of 5 cents a share was made on Oct. 31 for the quarter ended Sept. 30, 2007.

The company's net loss expanded to $214.7 million, or $1.28 per share, in the third quarter, with heavy writedowns and losses related to its on-balance-sheet securitized loan portfolio. FBR expects its losses to narrow in the fourth quarter to $38 million. The company has completed the sale of its on-balance-sheet securitized loan portfolio and is currently negotiating the sale of the remaining $48 million of the mortgage loans.

FBR has certainly felt the pressure of the housing and financial-market turmoil, but some may feel this one is drastically undervalued because it is currently trading below book value per share.

Stock price of FBR has shot up in the past couple weeks, despite the subprime crisis.

Go Green!

If you have not noticed the increase in prices at gas pumps, grocery stores, and just about everywhere else, it's time to come out of the cave.

A large part of the inflation we are witnessing nowadays is due to the surge in oil prices. Putting aside the reasons behind this surge of oil from $30 a barrel few years ago, to the new $100 mark, it would be nice to make some money in the dire situation.

Turning this opportunity to make some profit, isntead of just paying like a dummy, you can either do energy plays with oil and natural gas. Or, you can consider the following: green energy. By doing so, you'd be investing in the future to come.

Here are six ETFs, and I've included their investment focus, international exposure, market cap, and expenses -- in each fund's holdings:

1. PowerShares WilderHill Clean Energy Portfolio (PBW)

Listed in March 2005, PBW was the first alternative energy ETF and tracks the WilderHill Clean Energy Index. The fund holds 40 U.S.-listed companies that produce green or renewable energy and related technologies. It's focused on small-caps (69 percent weighting) and is dominated by information technology companies (41 percent of holdings). The ETF charges a 0.60 percent annual fee that will weigh on gains. The relatively volatile PBW has returned a 22.5 percent gain since its inception, but dropped just over 6 percent in the past year. See PBW's full holdings.

2. PowerShares WilderHill Progressive Energy Portfolio (PUW)

This ETF differs from PBW by focusing on companies providing "transitional energy bridge technologies" -- that is, technologies that improve the use of existing fossil fuels, rather than entire new approaches. PUW also has heavy small-cap exposure (49 percent), but offers relatively diversified sector exposure: the largest single sector, industrials, constitutes just 28 percent of the fund. Since its inception in October 2006, PUW has returned a strong 18.7 percent; it also charges a steep 0.60 percent yearly fee.

3. PowerShares Cleantech Portfolio (PZD)

This ETF tracks the Cleantech Index, which aims to capture the potential for companies that "produce any knowledge-based product or service that improves operation, performance, productivity, or efficiency, while reducing costs, inputs, energy consumption, waste, or pollution." PZD is heavily weighted toward industrials (59 percent), with 63 percent of its holdings in small-caps; like the other PowerShares ETFs, it has a 0.6 percent expense ratio. See PZD's full holdings.

4. Claymore/LGA Green ETF (GRN)

GRN launched in December 2006, and follows the Light Green Eco*Index, which is comprised of about 200 stocks that are in some way active in alternative energy. Yet a quick look at GRN's holdings reveals the world of difference between this and the PowerShares ETFs. Top holdings of GRN read more like the S&P 500: Mobil, Citigroup, and General Electric -- mega-cap corporations that allocate a certain (no doubt, growing) portion of their investment or R&D in green technologies, but are hardly "pure plays" on the alternative energy theme. GRN has a 0.6 percent yearly fee.

5. Van Eck Global Alternative Energy ETF (GEX)

Launched on May 9, 2007, GEX tracks the Ardour Global Index (Extra Liquid), which is composed of stocks in 30 publicly traded companies that obtain at least half of their revenue from alternative energy activity. GEX is unique among its peers in two key ways: emphasizing large-cap exposure (31 percent of the fund's holdings; small-caps are only 26.9 percent), and international reach (European companies constitute 47.1 percent of the fund, China/Japan 11.1 percent, and U.S. 41.8 percent). GEX charges 0.65 percent annually.

6. First Trust NASDAQ Clean Edge ETF (QCLN)

Launched in February 2007, QCLN follows the NASDAQ Clean Edge U.S. Liquid Series Index, which captures five subsectors of the alternative energy industry: renewable power generation, renewable fuels, energy storage and conversion, energy intelligence, and advanced energy-related materials. The 44 stocks in this basket are almost entirely small-caps. QCLN charges a 0.68 percent annual fee.

Market turmoil

This blog ain't for the young and adventurous. Your blog is coming soon.

Wow. What a time. Housing is correcting rapidly, but from a super-high level. The stock market is correcting rapidly, too, but also from a very high level. The dollar is collapsing. As I write this, oil is hovering near $100 a barrel. What to do?

First of all, panic.


Just kidding -- don't panic.

The stock market fluctuates. It's had five good years in a row, with some of them very, very good. Even with recent corrections, at the of end of 2007 it was higher than it was at the beginning of 2007, and dramatically higher on the Dow than it was at its peak in 2000 -- and that doesn't include dividends.

Given the intense feed of negativity into the market from the media and short-sellers, it's not the least bit surprising that the markets would fall. Given the losses from subprime and its related indices at banks, and their reluctance to loan after many years of loaning too much, it's not going to be a total shock if we go into a recession. And if we do, the markets will fall more -- maybe a lot more.

This isn't a development to strike terror into your hearts -- if you're a long-term investor, it signals a time to buy. The history of stock market investing is unequivocal on this point: When the market is low, when the economy is in a recession, it is -- in the long run -- by far the best time to buy.

So continue to buy the diversified domestic funds, especially the FSTVX, and its equivalent total market fund at Vanguard. Continue to buy the emerging markets (which had a super year in 2007) in the form of the EEM or the ADRE. Let me make this totally clear: The emerging markets won't just go up in a smooth line -- they'll fluctuate. They'll fluctuate a lot sometimes, and sometimes in a jaw-droppingly downward direction. Keep buying in a patient, thoughtful way, possibly setting it on autopilot.

Keep buying the developed markets in the EFA, also in a disciplined, ongoing way. Europe has its problems for certain, and so does Japan. But they benefit from the falling dollar and are extremely big economies, and tend to fluctuate a lot less than the EEM as well. But they will fluctuate. Stay in them patiently and you'll be rewarded.

Now, about housing: I fully respect the people who say that housing is going to fall even further than it already has. In my beloved Southern California, housing is falling far and fast, so I see it all around me. But buying a home isn't like buying a stock or a barrel of oil. A home is a unique item -- it's about the heart as much as the head. It's about falling in love with the place in which you live.

In my experience as a homebuyer, there are so few homes that one really falls in love with that if you find one you do love, you should snap it up (if you need it and can afford it). I urge this even though housing is likely to fall even further.

There's some economic rationale to this course of action as well. The history of home prices tells us that when housing reaches a peak, it falls (of course), but then when the next wave comes along, that wave lifts housing higher than it was at the last peak -- often far higher. In the meantime, you get to live in the home rent-free -- with the "imputed rent," which is sort of a dividend composed of the rent you would have had to pay if you'd lived in the home as a renter. (If you owned a bond with that same yield as your imputed rent, you would have to pay tax on it.)

For house flippers, these are really hard times, and I can only say that if they're highly leveraged, get out of the leverage as fast as you can. If that means selling at a loss, it's preferable to an even bigger loss.

Housing cycles, by the way, are usually very long ones. This time may be different, but usually they last five or more years, so don't expect a turnaround soon. (I could be wrong, and in this case I hope I am.)

Again, don't panic. We've been through many recessions since World War II, and we always get through them and go on to a brighter future. And we always look back and say we wish we had bought more stocks and more real estate when times were hard.

As for oil, there's no harm at all in buying a chunk of the XLE, the index fund for energy securities. It's had a phenomenal move in the last few years, and usually that spells correction. But over very long periods, you'll do fine.

Short term investors, look for my blog in the coming weeks. I will have one on profiting in a bear market, and volatile markets.