
Crude oil futures held above $80 a barrel Wednesday in Asia after falling three straight days from last week's near-record levels. If this is not a bubble, I don't know what is...
Light, sweet crude for November delivery rose 16 cents to $80.24 a barrel in Asian electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange by midday in Singapore. The Nymex crude contract fell 19 cents to $80.05 a barrel Tuesday.
Many analysts say investors taking advantage of the weak dollar drove oil prices to record levels above $83 a barrel in September. The supply and demand fundamentals of the oil market simply don't support such high prices, these analysts argue.
The dollar has been rebounding against several currencies, though, and dollar-denominated commodities have become less of a bargain.
Investors have also begun betting that oil prices have hit their highs for the year. Oil prices typically fall off between the peak demand of summer driving season and before winter demand for heating oil kicks in.
Still, prices could jump to new records on news of a hurricane or a bullish government petroleum inventory report. So, while keeping one eye on the dollar, futures traders are also anticipating Wednesday's inventory report from the Energy Department's Energy Information Administration.
Analysts surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires expect, on average, that crude inventories fell 400,000 barrels in the week ended Sept. 28, while gasoline inventories grew 400,000 barrels.
Refinery use likely rose by 0.4 percentage point to 87.3 percent of capacity, the analysts said, while inventories of distillates, which include heating oil and diesel fuel, likely grew 700,000 barrels.
November Brent crude rose 6 cents to $77.44 a barrel on the ICE futures exchange in London.
This is the best time to invest in ETFs, namely DUG. DUG is a fund that shorts securities in oil and natural gas. Knowing this is a bubble that is likely to extend to only early next year, this is a good time to put in that "buy" instruction. So, the higher the price of oil and gas goes, the lower DUG would be. Therefore, the inverse is true. If oil/gas prices drop in the future, DUG (trading at 52 week low) would rebound. You can email me if you need more clarification on how shorting works, or ETFs in general.
Here's the deal with Natural gas, that too, is building a bubble. Nymex heating oil futures rose 0.52 cent to $2.1675 a gallon, while gasoline prices added 0.30 cent to $1.9858 a gallon. November natural gas futures, meanwhile, rose 4.5 cent to $7.472 per 1,000 cubic feet.
Natural gas futures bucked the rest of the complex Tuesday in the U.S., rising 37.7 cents to settle at $7.427 per 1,000 cubic feet. Some analysts think investors are reacting to a storm system in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico that they believe could threaten critical gas and oil infrastructure.
Other analysts said natural gas investors are only looking ahead to winter demand and betting the Northern Hemisphere winter will be colder than the last.
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