
It is now official that our market is in a correction, and near a bear market. Dow has declined more than 10% since its October peak. Investors often call a 10% pullback a correction and a 20% fall a bear market. Given our current market condition, it is making investing a more difficult task. Let’s start with the overall landscape of the U.S. market. Prices of U.S. Treasury bond soared as investors fled to their relative safety. Banks are suddenly retreating, and consumers who had been loose with their spending are counting their pennies more carefully. What results is the there will be a pullback in the willingness for bank to lend on all fronts. Summarilarily, we have our first correction since 2003, when we invaded Iraq.
Fears that financial institutions will reduce access to loans for businesses and consumers at a time when they most need them are lading some economists to revise their forecasts. Some are warning that a recession now looks like a bigger threat. And oil at $100 a barrel certainly does not help.
So why is the Fed not lowering rates more? Some may ask. Well, if the Fed lowered rates further, it might encourage investors to dump the dollar in favor of higher-yielding currencies, which would contribute to further slumping of the dollar. Also, the Fed is holding onto their forecast that U.S. economy would still grow in the coming year, albeit around 1%.
In the current market, it would be a good idea for investors to look to emerging markets. Two ETFs that I recommend are Austria Index Fund (EWO) and the Netherlands Index (EWN). These funds track the emerging market of the two European nations, both of which are forecasted to outpace U.S. economy. This is a time where being behind during the last few years while Asia has taken off, actually puts these ETFs in a good position to grow. China and India have been red hot, and U.S. also had its glamour while housing market was red hot. Now, it’s these developing nations turn.
If you have little faith in the emerging markets, here is also another play. DBA is an ETF that invests in agricultural products. With the world's population is expected to double by 2050, food is becoming more and more expensive. Ethanol production is also pushing up prices of corn to record numbers. While these benefit countries and sectors of industry that traditionally were never looked at by the market, investors can jump on the wagon by investing in these companies. U.N.'s food program reported that food costs increased by 20% in the last year. That's stuff like corn, wheat, sugar…pretty much stuff in find in your own kitchen. If you don't invest now, with everything around you shooting up in prices, pretty soon you'll find your paycheck shrinking in reality.
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